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Historian predicts winner of 2024 presidential election: Harris or Trump?

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Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted nine of the last ten presidential elections. And he doesn't believe Donald Trump will return to the White House.

For the 2024 election, the historian predicted that Kamala Harris will be the next president. Here's a look at his approach.

Who is Allan Lichtman?

Before receiving the title of Distinguished Professor from American University in Washington, DC, Lichtman earned his doctorate from Harvard with a focus on modern American history and quantitative methods.

In addition to lecturing in the United States and around the world, Lichtman is the author of 13 books and hundreds of academic articles, and has served as an expert witness in civil and election law cases.

He regularly publishes political commentaries and is best known for his election forecasts.

How does Lichtman make his choices for the presidential election?

In a video first reported by the New York Times, Lichtman said he based his prediction on thirteen key factors, or “big-picture true-false questions that provide insight into the party's strength and ability to hold the White House.”

Others read: Immigration: A closer look at asylum, crime and deportations ahead of the Trump-Harris debate

Key factors include whether:

◾ The White House party won seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.

◾ The incumbent president is running for re-election.

◾ The White House party avoids a primary campaign.

◾ There is a third-party challenger.

◾ The short-term economic situation is strong.

◾ Long-term economic growth was as good as in the last two terms.

◾ The party in the White House has made major changes in national politics.

◾ During his term in office there is persistent social unrest.

◾ The White House is free of scandals, the incumbent party is charismatic.

◾ The challenger is not charismatic.

◾ The incumbent is charismatic.

◾ The party in the White House has made a big mistake in foreign policy.

◾ The party in the White House has foreign policy successes.

Why did Allan Lichtman choose Kamala Harris?

Eight of the above keys speak for Harris, while three speak for Trump.

When will Trump and Harris debate?

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will debate Tuesday evening at 9 p.m.

Watch the debate: The Trump-Harris presidential debate is on Tuesday. Here's how to watch it in Indiana

Contributors: Karissa Waddick

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