In India, rainfall is 8 percent above average, but in some states the monsoon is uneven

With the southwest monsoon likely to withdraw from northwest India this month, the country has so far received 8 percent above-average rainfall, although the rainfall has been unevenly distributed in some states.

Normally, the retreat of the monsoon begins around September 17 and is completed by October 15. While these dates are provisional, deviations are common. Last year, for example, the retreat of the monsoon was delayed until September 25. This year, the system seems to be following a similar pattern, suggesting a possible extension of the season.

On September 7, India received 8 percent more rainfall than average, giving agriculture a much-needed respite. Despite the overall positive outlook, the monsoon distribution across the country was notably uneven.

While Rajasthan recorded a surplus of 57 percent, crucial for its typically arid landscape, Manipur suffered a deficit of 30 percent, raising fears of water scarcity and strain on agriculture.

The diverse climatic conditions in India often result in different rainfall patterns, which can be classified into five main categories: Severe Deficiency (-99 to -60 percent), Deficiency (-59 to -20 percent), Normal (-19 to 19 percent), Excess (20 to 60 percent) and Severe Excess (60 to 99 percent).

This year, no state has experienced the extremes of large rainfall deficits or large rainfall surpluses.

However, several states experienced rainfall deficits. Manipur recorded a significant deficit of -30 percent, closely followed by Bihar at -26 percent. Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir recorded -23 percent and -20 percent respectively. Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh also recorded deficits of -21 percent and -22 percent respectively.

In some states, rainfall is normal but still below average. Uttar Pradesh reports a deficit of -14 percent, Assam -13 percent. Haryana and Kerala have a deficit of -10 percent.

Other states, including Odisha (-12 percent), Jharkhand (-13 percent), West Bengal (-7 percent), Mizoram (-11 percent) and Meghalaya (-3 percent), also recorded below-average rainfall.

Delhi, on the other hand, was on the verge of the surplus category, recording a rainfall surplus of 19 percent. Madhya Pradesh, on the other hand, recorded slightly above average rainfall of 7 percent.

In contrast, many states recorded ample rainfall. Rajasthan led the way with a notable rainfall surplus of 57 percent, closely followed by Tamil Nadu and Gujarat, both of which recorded a surplus of 51 percent.

Goa recorded a surplus of 45 percent, while Ladakh recorded an increase of 44 percent. Andhra Pradesh (42 percent), Telangana (40 percent), Maharashtra (28 percent), Karnataka (23 percent), Tripura (22 percent) and Sikkim (21 percent) also recorded considerable surplus rainfall.