Deep League Promoted and Relegated Teams, Week 23

Welcome back, deep leaguers! It's the final month of the fantasy baseball season. Almost all deep leagues are in the midst of their playoffs at this point, even if this is only week one. That means our focus will shift and narrow slightly over the next few weeks. I'm not really thinking about the implications of 2025 or beyond, it's all about winning this year. So let's get started.

Faller

Nolan Jones, first base and outfield, Colorado Rockies – 44% in the squad

Jones missed most of 2024 with back and knee injuries, but was reactivated in mid-July and was rusty, to say the least. Since returning to the lineup, Jones has a batting average of .268/.326/.366 with no home runs, one stolen base (and one base caught stealing), four runs scored and seven drive-ins. That line is actually better than the triple slash of .203/.311/.313 he had before his last IL stint, but Jones was a 20/20 guy, hitting nearly .300 last season.

The injuries are probably a contributing factor, but Jones just isn't the same hitter this season. Last year, Jones had an exit velocity of over 90 MPH and a barrel rate of over 15%. This season, he's lost nearly two full MPH in his average exit velocity and his barrel rate has dropped to 5.1%, less than a third of his rate of 23.

Jones is still walking more than 12% of the time, so his eye and batting discipline still look good, and he can still play his home games at Coors Field. The Rockies are also out of the playoffs, so I expect Jones to play every day even if he struggles. I would even consider taking a lucky hit on Jones if I lost an outfielder this coming weekend, but the Rockies are on the road this week, and I'm avoiding him for now.

Logan O'Hoppe, catcher, Los Angeles Angels – 65% in the squad

Loyal DLR&F readers know by now that a roster rate above 50% means a faller has struggled pretty hard lately, and the line I'm about to transfer into this paragraph may be the worst I've seen this year. Logan O'Hoppe hit .099/.163/.176 in 25 games (98 batting appearances) in August. That's the first sub-.100 average and I believe the first months with an OBP and slugging percentage below .200 that I've seen while writing these articles.

O'Hoppe is also a pretty good hitter. He still has an average exit velocity of over 90 MPH, a barrel rate of over 11%, and a hard hit rate of over 46%. All of these rates are in the top third of the league, with the barrel and hard hit rates pushing into the top quarter. However, he strikes out nearly 30% of the time and has a poor walk rate. Many of O'Hoppe's recent problems can be summed up with a few charts.

He was never an above-average contact hitter, but the contact really started to drop off starting in early August. It's not because he's swinging after bad throws, either, because we can see his decision value graph trending upward even as his contact rate drops. This is the kind of situation that makes me speculate about an unspecified persistent injury. Or maybe fatigue is setting in, since O'Hoppe only played about 60 games last season and has played nearly 120 games this year. Either way, there are plenty of other catcher options currently who have hit over .100 in the last month.

Jorge Polanco, second base and third base, Seattle Mariners – 27% in the squad

Polanco seemed to hit his stride in July, posting an OPS of .783 with five home runs in 89 at-bats. Then his performance dropped off in August, hitting .215/.326/.367 with three home runs, 10 RBIs, and 11 runs scored. I think the Process chart describes Polanco very well, too.

This is Polanco, a fairly average to below-average contact hitter who sometimes has some power. He once hit 30+ home runs in a season, but that was in 2021 when everyone was shooting moonshots. Now, at 31, he's having his worst professional season, playing for the fifth-worst team in the majors. He's in the bottom third of the league in exit velocity and hard hit rate, and in the bottom tenth in strikeout rate. It's nice that he can play as both a corner and middle infielder, but that's about all I have to say in his favor for now.

Carrying straps

Spencer Torkelson, First Base, Detroit Tigers – 48% in the squad

Tork's season record is still pretty ugly, hitting .220/.283/.384 with eight home runs in 268 at-bats. Over the past two weeks, however, the former top pick has hit a much better .283/.321/.547 with half of those eight home runs. It's not all rosy, though. Since returning to the major leagues in August, Tork has 22 strikeouts and just four walks in 64 at-bats.

I will use the same charts we used for O'Hoppe to paint a similar, if not more extreme, picture.

I love seeing these two charts side by side like this. We can see that Tork is a very patient hitter when it comes to outside throws. His chase rate is actually in the top 5th percentile in the league. However, his contact ability has been so poor that even with such a good eye, he only has a career batting average of .22o. He also doesn't walk much, which is a real shame for a hitter with a poor contact rate and no speed. We can also see that despite his recent success, his contact ability actually looks even worse than it did earlier in the season, before his demotion.

I'm sure Tiger fans and Tork Truthers would love to see the big slugger get back into the swing of things in the home stretch, but I don't think that's it. As a Pirates fan who watches Hank Davis struggle, you have my sympathies.

Kyle Stowers, outfield, Miami Marlins – 2% in the squad

After adding Connor Norby to this section last week, I'm starting to think the Marlins will remember their 2024 deadline deal with the Orioles pretty well. Stowers didn't find immediate success after switching uniforms, but over the last two weeks he's hit .314/.385/.600 with a couple of home runs and ten runs scored. He also had a .797 OPS in limited playing time with the O's this year, so this isn't unexpected at all.

His sample size is still quite small, with only 137 late appearances this year, but a look behind the scenes shows a hitter with a very strong exit velocity of 90.3 MPH, a barrel rate of 13.8%, and a hard hit rate of 48.8%. It also shows sky-high chase, whiff, and strikeout rates (all over 30%) and a terrible walk rate of 4.4%.

I'm pretty confident the Marlins will use their new addition full-time for the rest of the year, and while I don't think he'll improve your batting average, he could provide some decent momentum down the stretch. If DLR favorite Xavier Edwards returns and Stowers bats behind Edwards, Norby, and Bride, he could also be a good source of RBI.

Joey Estes, starting pitcher, Oakland Athletics – 15% of roster

Joey Estes has played well in three games against the Rays, Brewers and Rangers. He has posted a 2.33 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 17:2 K:BB ratio in 19 innings. Only one of these teams will make the playoffs, but the Rangers and Rays aren't exactly easy offensive teams. It's also worth noting that Oakland has been a winning team since early August, and we shouldn't just write off their starters' ability to pull off wins.

Joey Estes is another 22-year-old starter who relies on a 92 MPH four-seamer for more than half of his pitches. He mixes in a sweeper 20% of the time and a slider and changeup about 10%. I generally don't like pitchers who rely so heavily on their heater, especially one as slack as Estes' (though he generates above-average movement at two levels and is performing positively on the season). At just 92 MPH and poor stretch, he's not going to knock anyone out.

He also has one of the worst ground ball rates among starters at just 23.5%, a strikeout rate of under 19% (bottom quartile), and a whiff rate of under 20% (bottom tenth). He is pretty good at limiting free passes, though.

While I can't say I love the player or the profile here, I like the situation right now. The A's are pretty good right now, Estes is scheduled to play next against the Mariners on 9/5 (that's tomorrow if you're reading this release date. SALESABLE INFORMATION), and we just mentioned Seattle's top-five worst offense. At this stage of the season, starting pitchers are only as good as their next opponent, and from here, Estes' next start looks good.

As always, thanks for reading and good luck out there, Deep Leaguers!

Featured image by Justin Paradis