Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers

With a two-game tie against the San Diego Padres, the Seattle Mariners managed to win a game in the AL West while losing a game in the Wild Card race. They will continue their long home streak with a big four-game series against the Texas Rangers, the first of seven games they will play against their division rival over the next two weeks.

The moment the Rangers have been waiting for all season is finally here: They're activating Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer from the IL this weekend. Forget the eight largely unremarkable starts Scherzer made earlier in the season before being placed back on the IL. And forget the significant regression that hit the lineup that won them the World Series last year. And forget that Texas is six games under .500 and 7.5 games behind the division with just 16 games left to play. They built their roster to take advantage of this moment, only the rest of their roster failed to hold up their end of the bargain.

Nearly every core member of the Rangers' lineup has struggled in one way or another this year. Marcus Semien is slogging through his worst season since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season; Corey Seager continues to battle persistent injuries and his wRC+ is down 30 points from last year; Evan Carter has been miserable in the field and a back injury ended his season after just 45 games; and Adolis García's hitting power has evaporated despite solid peripherals and his wRC+ is down nearly 40 points. There are a few positive signs: Although Wyatt Langford didn't live up to overwhelming expectations early in the season, he put together a solid rookie season and performed better as the season went on; and Josh Smith has continued his breakout season as a super-utility player. However, if the lineup's job was to carry the team until their pitchers were healthy again, they failed miserably in that goal.

Probable pitchers

Updated Stuff+ explainer video

Photo by Bailey Orr/Texas Rangers/Getty Images

Kumar Rocker, one of the most prominent pitching prospects in recent years, makes his MLB debut Thursday in Seattle. Rocker rose to prominence as a promising pitcher with an athletic pedigree spotlighted by his father, NFL defensive lineman (and current Tennessee Titans assistant coach) Tracy Rocker. That prominence only grew with his dominant pitching on the campus of Vanderbilt University. He passed up a 10th pick by the New York Mets in 2021 and fought his way up the career ladder until being drafted 3rd overall by Texas the following year, pitching in independent ball for the Tri-City (NY) Valley Cats of the Frontier League. Despite his massive frame and immense skill, Tommy John came for Rocker in 2023, and some concerns about his stiffness and pitch shape slowed the right-hander, who never made the top 100 list of any major rankings in the preseason. The pitcher he's been this year, however, as his TJ rehab continues to fade into the background, is undoubtedly one of the best pitching prospects in the sport, combining a running four-seamer in the 97-100 range with one of the best power curveballs a current pitching prospect can boast. His command was sharp during his recent stretch in the minors, but is historically at least some cause for concern.

30.1 innings over two years is almost the worst-case scenario for the contract the Texas Rangers signed deGrom to before the 2023 season, but he's finally slated to return. As inconvenient as it is for the Mariners, they'll face the best starting pitcher of the last decade healthy on Friday night. He's looked his usual self in four rehab appearances, crushing weak minor leaguers with efficiency, but the fireball pitcher should have a pitch count around 70, meaning any work the M's can do to train the two-time Cy Young winner will go a long way. Expect heat above 35 degrees and plenty of nasty sliders.

The three-time Cy Young winner returns from the injured list to threaten the Mariners, presenting another formidable challenge to the M's lineup that hasn't exactly been wild. Mad Max has softened as the 39-year-old has battled injuries and the lowest average velocity of his career, but he was a passable starter when he took the mound. Three straight starters who may have limitations on how many pitches they throw is an opportunity for the M's, but all three are among the currently healthy pitchers with higher potential. The challenge is immense.

Andrew Heaney's success has always been tied to his ability to keep the ball in the yard. He has always posted excellent strikeout rates and has mastered his three-pitch repertoire so well that he can be very effective when he doesn't allow a ton of hard contact. That blueprint is obsolete once the balls fly over the fences. In 2022, he took a pretty significant step forward with the Dodgers and the hope was that his newfound ability to strike out more than a third of the batters he faced would give him much higher potential. That wasn't the case when he joined the Rangers last year; his strikeout rate dropped back to his career average and his walk rate rose three points, making matters worse.

Sweet familiarity at last. When Heaney (presumably) takes the mound on Sunday, he will tie Sean Manaea and Martin Pérez for the second-most starts at T-Mobile Park by an active pitcher who has never played for the Mariners. His soon-to-be 11 starts will trail only Justin Verlander's 20.

The big picture:

The Mariners got closer to the Astros thanks to a pesky Athletics club that is one of the most successful teams in the sport during the second half of the season. The Twins did not, beating the Angels twice in a row in their efforts to keep the red-hot Tigers at bay. If you're still dreaming of the playoffs, the division remains the most plausible (but unlikely) path given the group of teams ahead of the M's in the Wild Card, but Seattle remains out of reach of a Houston sweep.