NFL Betting – Insider Tips for Week 2

We bet on victory.

We bet to try to win.

And if I am the one placing the bets, two key factors are crucial to having the confidence needed to place the bet:

1. A model-based approach, or at least a quantitative approach. But almost all of the bets in this column are based on the results of models built by me or, occasionally, my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.

2. A less efficient market. NFL teams and totals are high-volume markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like betting on All-Madden. That's why I often look at props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less efficient markets, and therefore more opportunities to find value.

These two criteria form the core of this weekly column, although I will occasionally recommend bets that meet one or the other. Each week I will publish bets from our models in mostly less visible categories, with the simple aim of coming out on top. We will look at odds from across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100:1 – for me, value is always value, no matter the price.

The results of this season can be found at the end of this story.

Let’s dive into Week 2 and start with defensive player traits!

Defensive props

Greg Rousseau (BUF) under 0.5 sacks (-125)

My sack model isn't entirely sold on Rousseau, even after his three-sack performance in Week 1. The key factor working against him this week is Tua Tagovailoa's quick release, which has allowed him to post a low 5.0% sack rate since the start of 2023 despite facing a questionable offensive line.

As for Rousseau, he was obviously exceptional last week, but his pass rush win rate since the beginning of last year is also only 14% – below average for a starter at the position.

Jordan Hicks (CLE) under 8.5 tackles + assists (-105)

I love this bet because 8.5 makes sense for Hicks just looking at the median combined tackles from a year ago. But that was when he was with the Vikings and played 93% of the defensive snaps. Now he's with the Browns and at 32 years old, he left the field on more than half of the team's third downs and played only 70% of the snaps in the game.

Even though there are fewer tackles on passing plays, it's harder to get to nine total tackles when you're not on the field every play. I'm well under that here and expect 6.0 tackles + assists for Hicks.

Devin Lloyd (JAX) under 8.5 tackles + assists (-135)

Lloyd is in a similar situation: His playing time dropped in Week 1, from 97% of defensive snaps played in 2023 to just 75% in 2024. He's coming off a game where he crossed that line with nine total tackles, so it's possible, but his run-stop win rate was below average at 29%. Even at -135, I can't pass that up.

Also consider:

Alternative reception courtyards

OK, these aren't exactly secret bets, but they are still backed by a model and therefore good enough to meet our criteria.

Cedric Tillman (CLE) 20+ yards of space gained (+175)

Tillman had a disappointing opener, catching just one pass for three yards and playing only about a third of the team's offensive snaps. I like that the model likes him, though, considering he made waves in the offseason for taking a step forward, and the model is obviously oblivious to that. He's a vertical threat; since the start of 2023, he has the 12th-highest rate of go and deep fade routes, so we're probably just looking for a long catch here to get a solid plus gain.

Stefon Diggs (HOU) 80+ Receiving Yards (+225)

In Week 1, the yardage wasn't there, even though he scored twice, but that's just a bet on a good player in a great offense. The model finds it helpful to factor in past receiving yardage props, and while it was obviously a different situation in Buffalo with less target competition for Diggs, his average receiving yards prop line last year was 77. Plus, the Bears had a good run defense last year, which could encourage Houston to throw more.

Also consider:

Touchdowns anytime

Nico Collins (HOU) scores a touchdown (+150)

I wrote a week ago about how much my touchdown model loved Collins. Nothing about Week 1 – aside from him not scoring a touchdown – changed that opinion. Collins caught six passes for 117 yards, maintaining a strong 26% target share despite competition from Diggs and Tank Dell. The model prefers to see yards through the air rather than yards after the catch; his 3.6 air yards completed per route were third-best among wide receivers in Week 1.

For almost all players, my touchdown model sees slightly worse chances than offered, but for Collins, his chances of scoring a point are even better than 50:50.

play

Which Texans WR should Fantasy managers pay the most attention to?

Field Yates and Daniel Dopp discuss whether Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins or Tank Dell should be the most noticeable prospects for fantasy managers.

QB interceptions

Patrick Mahomes (KC) less than 0.5 interceptions (+100)

Since the start of 2023, Mahomes has the eighth-best interception rate at 2.1%, and the Chiefs are clear favorites by 5.5 points. Being the favorite is an advantage here because when teams are ahead, they pass less often and the quarterback takes fewer risks.

That's basically it. This is pretty straightforward and I'm only showing a small number because I estimate the probability of Mahomes throwing an interception to be 47.6%.

Awards Future

Jared Verse (LAR) is named Defensive Rookie of the Year (+550)

Since no defensive players were drafted at the beginning of this season, there was no major priority in determining who should be the favorite for the DROY title.

And then came week 1.

Just looking at the game report, Verse and Dallas Turner each had 1.0 sacks, so that shouldn't matter much, right? The big number, though, is the pass rush win rate: Verse posted a PRWR of 33% – meaning he beat his blocker within 2.5 seconds a third of the time – making him the sixth-best edge rusher in Week 1. No other rookie averaged above 14%.

While I don't have an awards model and it's just one game, PRWR gives us insight into a player's skill level and I want to jump on Verse now while he's not the favorite yet.

Previous results

The results from last season are below. I wrote about the rules I set for myself regarding line movement and adding props in the Week 1 column.