Vladimir Putin draws new red line for long-range missiles

The headline in this morning’s edition of the newspaper Kommersant summed up the drama.

“Vladimir Putin draws his red line.”

Will the West cross this line? And if so, how will Russia react?

In his speech in St. Petersburg, President Putin sent a clear warning to the West: Do not allow Ukraine to attack Russian territory with its long-range missiles.

Moscow would view this as a “direct involvement” of NATO states in the war in Ukraine, he said.

“It would fundamentally change the essence and nature of the conflict,” the Kremlin chief continued.

“That would mean that the NATO states, the USA and the European states, are at war with Russia.”

He claimed that Ukraine needed data from Western satellites to launch missiles at Russia and that only soldiers from NATO member states could “input flight missions into these missile systems.”

Russia has drawn red lines before and seen them crossed before.

When President Putin announced the start of his “special military operation” – the large-scale invasion of Ukraine – on February 24, 2022, he issued a warning to “those who may succumb to the temptation to intervene from outside.”

“No matter who tries to stand in our way or poses a threat to our country and our people, they must know that Russia will react immediately,” the Kremlin chief said.

“And the consequences will be of a kind you have never seen in your entire history.”

Western politicians ignored what was widely interpreted at the time as nuclear sabre-rattling. Since then, the West has supplied Ukraine with tanks, modern missile systems and, most recently, American F-16 fighter jets.

This year, Russia accused Ukraine of attacking the Russian-annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea with American long-range ATACMS-class missiles.

Moreover, over the past two years, Russian politicians and state media have repeatedly accused the West of “fighting against Russia” or “starting a war” against Russia, even though it was Russia that invaded Ukraine.

But the tone of President Putin's recent comments makes it clear that he believes an attack on internationally recognized Russian territory with Western missile systems would take the conflict to a new level.

What he did not make clear yesterday was how Moscow would react.

“We will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that arise for us,” said Vladimir Putin.

Russia withdrew the accreditation of six British diplomats on Friday, accusing them of “subversive activities” and endangering Russian security.

But Putin's possible answer is much more comprehensive. He already gave some hints in June.

At a meeting with the heads of international news agencies, he was asked: How would Russia react if Ukraine were given the opportunity to attack targets on Russian territory with weapons supplied from Europe?

“First, of course, we will improve our air defense systems. We will destroy their missiles,” President Putin replied.

“Secondly, we believe that if someone believes it is possible to deliver such weapons to a war zone to attack our territory and cause us problems, then why can't we deliver our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where they attack sensitive facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia?”

In other words, Moscow is considering arming Western opponents in order to attack Western targets abroad.

Earlier this month, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced that Russia would revise its nuclear doctrine, a document that sets out the circumstances under which Moscow might consider using nuclear weapons.

He said the decision to revise the doctrine was “related to the escalation course of the [Russia’s] Western opponents”.

Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer is in Washington for talks with President Biden. Among the topics the two leaders are expected to discuss are the Ukraine issue and long-range missiles.

“Russia started this conflict. Russia invaded Ukraine illegally,” Sir Keir said on his way to Washington. “Russia can end this conflict immediately.”

Western leaders must decide what they consider greater: the risk of escalation of the conflict or the need to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western missiles.