Mets vs. Phillies analysis: Pitching duels, Lindor and more

PHILADELPHIA – The final countdown of the Mets season begins Friday – and it should be a lot of fun.

With a tenth of the schedule left, they visit the Phillies for a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park that is almost certain to be turbulent. Division rivals playing well with a lot on the line is what September baseball is all about.

“I definitely feel good,” said coach Carlos Mendoza. “And we know what lies ahead of us: a really good team.”

Francisco Alvarez said: “We have to be ready to play. We have to keep playing, keep doing what we're doing. That's all.”

Here are a few relevant topics ahead of the Mets’ biggest series yet:

This is where it will be tough (again) for the Mets

This is not meant to be a harbinger of doom, as the Mets are constantly playing against playoff-caliber teams, but it is the reality: They play almost exclusively against good or great teams for the rest of the regular season.

After this series, the Mets have a three-game break against Washington. Then four more against Philadelphia, three against Atlanta and three against Milwaukee. And then maybe the postseason.

The Mets enter Friday's battle one game ahead of Atlanta for the National League's final wild-card spot. They are also just two games behind the Diamondbacks, who receive the top wild-card spot – a spot that gives them home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

The Phillies are mostly healthy – and definitely feel good

DH and exceptional leadoff man Kyle Schwarber was hit in the left elbow by a pitch on Tuesday and sat out Wednesday. The Phillies expect him back on Friday.

Catcher JT Realmuto fouled a throw with his left knee last Friday and has not played since. The Phillies also expect him back on Friday.

Aside from third baseman Alec Bohm – who is on the injured list with a hand injury – the Phillies have all of their key players available.

The Phillies just swept the Rays, including a win after their bench-clearing episode on Tuesday, and are 8-2 in September.

“What can I say?” explosive reliever Jose Alvarado, who has allowed just one hit in five appearances since returning from a weeklong personal vacation, told reporters this week. “It seems like the best thing in the world when you're on the best baseball team with the best record and the best teammates in baseball. It all feels so good. I'm just proud of everything we're doing and the results we've had.”

The magic number for the Phillies to win the NL East is nine. It won't happen this weekend, but they could be celebrating at Citi Field next week.

The pitching matchups are pretty good for the Mets

The good news is that the Mets will be without Zack Wheeler, a candidate for the NL Cy Young Award, this time around. The bad news is that the Phillies' other starters are pretty good, too.

Here are the likely pitching results:

• Friday: LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Aaron Nola
• Saturday: RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Kolby Allard (probably)
• Sunday: LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

This means the Mets can start with two of their three best starters (Severino and Peterson). The Phillies can essentially use their numbers 2 and 3.

Atlanta also has a hard time

It's the season for scoring, and Atlanta's results are just as important as the Mets'. While the Mets play the NL East leaders, Atlanta hosts the NL West leaders Dodgers for four games.

Like Francisco Lindor, the Mets

The Mets' best all-around player is much, much better in his wins (.331 average and 1.068 OPS) than in his losses (.191 and .536).

Perhaps this is an obvious, if particularly blatant, example of a normal trend. But it goes deeper. The trajectory of Lindor's season mirrors that of the Mets.

When the Mets struggled in May, Lindor felt much the same way. When the Mets hit and stayed at their best in June and July, Lindor felt the same way.

When Lindor cooled off in early August, the Mets lost a few games they should have won. When Lindor resumed his MVP campaign shortly thereafter, the Mets dominated against good teams and started their nine-game winning streak.

When that run ended and the Mets lost two of three games, as close to a low point as they'd been in weeks, it coincided with Lindor's bat going silent for a few days. When Lindor ended Bowden Francis' no-hit effort with a home run in the ninth inning on Wednesday, the rest of the Mets followed suit, turning a potentially embarrassing loss into a thrilling victory.

The Mets have underperforming hitters who need to get going, namely Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso, but Lindor has been the key player all year, for better or for worse.

“When he goes out and sets the table and gets on base – and not only gets on base but drives the ball – then of course everyone follows him,” Mendoza said. “But he's human. It's hard to maintain what he's done.”

What does Lindor mean for the Mets?

“Uhhh,” said Sean Manaea. “Everything?”

Tim Healey is the Mets reporter for Newsday. Born on Long Island and raised in Connecticut, Tim has previously worked for the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Boston Globe and MLB.com. He is also the author of Hometown Hardball, a book about minor league baseball in the Northeast.