UFC 306 betting preview: Will Sean O'Malley defend his title against Merab Dvalishvili?

“The greatest live sporting event of all time” takes place this Saturday when UFC306 will take place at the Sphere in Las Vegas. The headliner will be a bantamweight title fight between Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili, “Riyadh Season UFC Night” also includes a trilogy for the women's flyweight championship between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko, plus eight other decisive matchups. Who will go home the winner on Saturday, and how can you benefit? Let's dive in.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sports Betting.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Single bets

Sean O’Malley (-146)

I'll have a full analysis of this fight coming soon, so read it to get deeper into my thoughts on this weekend's main event, but it boils down to a very simple idea: Dvalishvili can't finish this fight and O'Malley can. 25 minutes is a long time to fight perfectly and that's what Dvalishvili has in front of him, while O'Malley just needs one good punch. If Dvalishvili comes out and gets 100 takedowns, he'll win, but I think O'Malley's ability to control the reach will help him avoid most takedowns, and he's so far ahead standing up that I like his chances of retaining the title.

Brian Ortega (+146)

Ortega faces Diego Lopes in the main event of the night and it is a testament to how popular Lopes is that he is the clear favorite over the more experienced Ortega. And I will take advantage of that.

Personally, I don't like Ortega's game (especially his utter disdain for defense), but the man is undeniably effective. Against all but the absolute top-tier opponents, Ortega has found a way to win, while Lopes has not. That's not to say he can't, but he hasn't proven it yet. Give me more money for the more proven winner.

Esteban Ribovics (+182)

Ribovics is fighting Daniel Zellhuber and it's going to be a cracker. They're both young, hard-hitting fighters who will come out and finish them. Zellhuber has the advantage of being bigger, but Ribovics is tough as nails and comes to the fight and I think he has a much better chance of getting his hand raised than the odds suggest.

Norma Dumont (-108)

Dumont faces Irene Aldana in the preliminary bout and I think she is in good shape to win. Like the main event, this is a striker versus grappler fight and while Aldana is a good defensive fighter on paper, I think that is a bit misleading. Amanda Nunes, Macy Chiasson and Holly Holm have all been very successful in taking Aldana to the ground and Dumont should have the same success, which would give her a clear win.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Special bets

Alexa Grasso by points (+200)

That's right, I, the driver of the “Bullet” train, am jumping off the Shevchenko train. It pains me to do this, but at this point it has to be done. Grasso and Shevchenko have now fought each other for over 40 minutes, and although Shevchenko has won most of the time, I personally believe she lost both fights overall.

On top of that, Shevchenko isn't getting any better. She's almost 37 and has been fighting for 20 years. Grasso, on the other hand, is still improving. So if a better version of Shevchenko couldn't beat a worse version of Grasso, why should she win this time? It hurts my soul to say this, but now is Grasso's time and Shevchenko should move up to 135.

Still, I'd be surprised if she managed it. Shevchenko could still try another unfortunate head and arm throw and get choked out again, but after failing twice in the same way, I suspect she won't make it this time, meaning we're looking at a point win for Grasso.

Packing

Wow. It's been a while since we last competed in an event like this! The last time we were here was UFC Vegas 96 and we're coming off a winning week. Can we do it again? Let's hope so.

Until next week, happy fighting, good luck and play responsibly!

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