Alabama vs. Wisconsin, Texas Tech vs. North Texas: College Football Odds

As the saying goes, it's the quiet ones you need to worry about.

There is only one ranked matchup on Saturday (Boston College vs. Missouri) and all but one of the favorites have less than 13 points.

This is how I see the table for week three in college football:

Alabama vs. Wisconsin (12:00 p.m. ET, Fox)

For years under Nick Saban, bettors paid a premium to bet on the Crimson Tide.

This explains why Saban, the best coach in the history of the sport, has only been on the field as a road favorite 51.2 percent of the time over the past decade.

Two things are going in Bama's favor on Saturday: a new, offensive-minded head coach and a sluggish performance in Week 2.

After Alabama beat Western Kentucky 56-0 in its opening game, the team punted on three of its first four possessions against South Florida at Bryant Denney Stadium.

That slow start put a cover (-31) out of reach, despite an explosive 28-point fourth quarter for Alabama.

I argue that the slow start was an exception and that Wisconsin is not well equipped to slow down Alabama's playmakers.

Ryan Williams, the lightning-quick first-year receiver, will appear even faster after Wisconsin's warm-up games against Western Michigan and South Dakota.

Despite a slow first half against South Florida, the Tide's six plays of over 40 yards are second nationally.

Kalen DeBoer's offense remains explosive and if she strikes early, Wisconsin's pop-gun offense will not hold up in a shootout.

Phil Longo's “Dairy Raid” passing attack is more horizontal than vertical, spanning the entire width of the field while placing passes within 30 yards.

Tyler Van Dyke has only two big throws and a yards-per-attempt average of just 6.4, according to PFF. Dinking and dunking aren't enough.

Alabama was tested by two experienced quarterbacks in 2024.

TJ Finley of Western Kentucky and Byrum Brown of South Florida have thrown for more than 10,000 yards in their careers, but against the Tide they averaged less than 100 yards, recorded five sacks and threw two interceptions.

It wouldn't shock me if Van Dyke and the Badgers suffered the same fate on Saturday.

Unless we are unlucky with the turnovers, Alabama should win this game comfortably and it is worth throwing in the alternate line up to Alabama -24 at +210.

Recommendation: Alabama -16.5.

North Texas vs. Texas Tech (12:00 p.m. ET, FS1)

My predictions put that total at 76, so why are the bookies reducing the number by one touchdown?

Because the Unders had a 60 percent win rate in games involving G5 teams this season.

A major reason for this is that the underdogs have tried to slow down the games significantly in the hope of causing an upset.

While that may have worked for Northern Illinois last week in South Bend, I can assure you that North Texas and Texas Tech have no intention of playing slow.

The Red Raiders run 88 plays per game (fourth), and when you subtract snaps in garbage time, they run a play every 21 seconds.

Betting on college football?

The Mean Green are hard to beat and rank in the top 30 in terms of pace, but their pace numbers were dragged down by a comfortable win over FCS Stephen F. Austin, where they ran down the clock in the fourth quarter and defended a 15-point lead.

They have an explosive passing attack that scored 52 points against South Alabama in their opening game.

I fully expect them to pick up their pace and passing attack again against Texas Tech's terrible defense.

The Red Raiders give up 515.5 yards per game (129th) and have nine players in their two-deep who are considered questionable.

Weather conditions are ideal for a shootout as both defenses crumble in the Northwest Texas heat. Temperatures are expected to reach 36 degrees.

Recommendation: Over 69.5.

Why you can bet on the New York Post

Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post with a focus on college sports. His betting tips often revolve around situational factors, including travel, rest periods and elevation.